The future is favourable
Reginald Bibby is urging Christians in Canada to be planning for a larger future. This message from the renowned sociologist comes as a surprise to many believers who are conditioned to believe that the Church is shrinking, its influence on culture is waning and that its institutions are in decline.
All that is true to some extent. But it's not the whole story; far from it.
Bibby is much more optimistic, and he has been collecting and studying the relevant data for more than three decades. "A solid and stable core of Canadians continues to embrace the Christian faith," he says. Earlier this year he released his latest findings and observations in Beyond the Gods and Back: Religion's Demise and Rise and Why it Matters, his fourth book in the past 25 years examining religious trends in Canada.
Back in the mid-1980s, the trend lines were indeed discouraging, the outlook bleak. Regular weekly attendance in Canada had declined from about 60 per cent to about 25 per cent. And it seemed like it would keep heading down, that society would simply gravitate to some sort of secular bottom line and religion would eventually fade away.
But that didn't happen. "A careful reading of attendance trends reveals that a solid core of about 25 per cent of Canadians, young and old, have continued to attend services on a weekly basis since the 1980s. Another 10 per cent or so have been reporting that they attend at least once a month," reports Bibby.
Polar opposition
So if a quarter of the population is attending a Christian house of worship every week, why are religious institutions being shunted to the sidelines? Why does our culture seem less Christian than before? Why are major denominations shrinking and historic churches shutting their doors? If there is resurgent vitality, why do we feel so marginalized?
As Bibby explains it, secularization did not overwhelm and extinguish religion as many had anticipated, but we do inhabit a more polarized society than used to be the case. A growing portion of the population is not content simply to turn their backs on religion; they are also more likely to be vocal about their choice to reject belief. So although we continue to have a significant segment of faithfully observant Christians, we have a roughly equal segment that is not just indifferent - it's opposed.
Bibby points out that this growing polarization has been accompanied by a major restructuring of organized religion. In 1931, almost 50 per cent of the Canadian population identified with either the United, Anglican, Presbyterian or Lutheran churches. At the turn of the millennium, that number had fallen to 20 per cent. No wonder prominent churches are closing their doors.
Amidst all these changes, the situation of evangelical Protestant worshipers has remained remarkably steady - "a small but durable collective core of some eight per cent of the population." According to Bibby, conservative Protestant groups are benefiting from immigration (as are Roman Catholics, but not mainline Protestants).
"[Evangelicals] also owe their resilience to their ability to retain their children, as well as a measure of evangelistic success. Their emphasis on participation has resulted in an increase over the past five decades in the involvement levels of their people."
What next?
It's clear to Bibby and many others that the questions religions speak to are not going away. We are spiritual beings on a human journey. People everywhere at all times wonder about the purpose and meaning of individual lives. We yearn for guidance about love and living. We look for clues to help us make sense of the mysteries of death and the hereafter. The cosmos is so much larger than our collective humanity. We know we need help for the big questions, and even to simply get along with our neighbours.
As long as these things are true, the religious impulse will draw people to places of worship. Churches that address the big questions with clarity and humility will always gain a hearing.
Religious questions abound. Religious opportunities abound. Churches and committed Christians exist in significant numbers. Yes, problems abound as well, but the tide of faith runs stronger and deeper and can overcome anything that hostile or indifferent forces can muster. After all, the Lord our God is with us. We believe that. Right?
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